2014 Vienna Seminar, May 13-14
International Peace Institute President Terje Rød-Larsen chaired a panel discussion with Daryl Copeland, Dunja Mijatovic, OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media, and James Rubin, Visiting Scholar at the Rothermere American Institute. Includes session videos.
iPolitics
Amidst fears of widening conflict and a new Cold War, at the level of world order these events seem more about continuity than change, and that will be costly
Re-awakening of the ursine chess master
As Russia has brought to bear its hard power assets in and around Ukraine – conventional military machinations combined with special forces deployment – policy and decision-makers in NATO countries have responded by ramping up sanctions and sending in reinforcements to the Baltic states, Poland and Romania. It is not surprising that analysts most everywhere have been pre-occupied with this spectacle. Many experienced a rude awakening – few anticipated the speed, acuity or sense of purpose which attended Russia’s annexation of Crimea, or could explain the uncertain nature of the West’s immediate reaction.
Whether or not Russia is now stepping back from the threat of armed intervention, will accept the results of the May 25 elections, and is really urging its irredentist allies to behave with moderation, today no one seems entirely sure whether or not another shoe will drop. Even if no further territorial gains eventuate, however, Russia’s designs on eastern and southern Ukraine seem certain to find some form of political expression.
To be sure, European security and international law have been undermined by the Kremlin’s machinations, and the predictability of future Russian behaviour under President Putin is now in doubt.